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SockRobber #41 Posted 04 October 2015 - 10:08 PM

    Senior Sergeant

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  • 21499 battles
  • 659
  • [PHNX]
  • Member since:
    12-05-2014

Ah, that makes sense.

 

Well today I had a little look at the Clan API - seems there are about 50-60k people in clans on EU currently. So in theory there's an easy way to get some numbers for use in averages. However if the account IDs are all simply sequential too, that's probably a better way. However I don't want to put a bunch of data in to the main database (that tracks the history) as there's no point in tracking the history (and all the server time that goes in to that) for people not using the site.

 

So that data would be better as 'one off' updates just to grab a whole load of accounts and make some averages. That would then avoid the inevitable issue of a stat website always leaning towards higher stats if it just uses the averages from those who check it (who are likely more serious players). I will have to have a think about how best to proceed......


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hson_hson #42 Posted 04 October 2015 - 10:23 PM

    First Sergeant

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  • 30342 battles
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    08-19-2014

View PostSockRobber, on 04 October 2015 - 11:08 PM, said:

However if the account IDs are all simply sequential too, that's probably a better way. 

 

Yes, they are sequential, but since they are WG account id and not Blitz account id, there are gaps in the sequence if you look at who plays Blitz.

Also, there are other gaps which is probably due to deleted WG accounts.



SockRobber #43 Posted 04 October 2015 - 10:26 PM

    Senior Sergeant

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  • 21499 battles
  • 659
  • [PHNX]
  • Member since:
    12-05-2014

View Posthson_hson, on 04 October 2015 - 10:23 PM, said:

 

Yes, they are sequential, but since they are WG account id and not Blitz account id, there are gaps in the sequence if you look at who plays Blitz.

Also, there are other gaps which is probably due to deleted WG accounts.

 

Ah. Eugh! Well, on the plus side, each check to see if an account ID is 'active' can test 100 IDs at once. On the downside, if there are gaps, especially large gaps, it makes detecting the 'end' hard and Wargaming might see it is a bit spammy. If I get time I will do some tests during the week.

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Nadaak_General_Fearless #44 Posted 04 October 2015 - 11:00 PM

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View Postllo1, on 16 September 2015 - 08:13 PM, said:

Any chance for you to include number of Ace's awarded per tank?

 

great idea


SockRobber #45 Posted 05 October 2015 - 01:21 PM

    Senior Sergeant

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  • 21499 battles
  • 659
  • [PHNX]
  • Member since:
    12-05-2014
Unfortunately the API doesn't provide that information so it is out of my hands  =/

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Nadaak_General_Fearless #46 Posted 05 October 2015 - 06:53 PM

    Sergeant

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Thanks I suppose you can't add info you can't get.

I've message WG a few times asking them to either give a platinum award when you've aced a tank many times (they could agree on number)  as some tanks have been Aced many times and it would be nice if it was counted



Riggmaster #47 Posted 05 October 2015 - 06:57 PM

    First Sergeant

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View PostGeneral_Error_2014, on 05 October 2015 - 07:53 PM, said:

Thanks I suppose you can't add info you can't get.

I've message WG a few times asking them to either give a platinum award when you've aced a tank many times (they could agree on number)  as some tanks have been Aced many times and it would be nice if it was counted

 

True, acing an overpowered tank gets boring after a while

*cough says the guy with 10/37 ace tankers cough*



__Nikolaus__ #48 Posted 05 October 2015 - 06:59 PM

    Sergeant

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  • 40348 battles
  • 468
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    12-06-2014
İ have a 3.2 k avg damage 2.01 avg spot with my obj 140. And my wn8 is 2200.  u gotta be kidding me ?  i will keep looking wotbstars. 

Türkçe anlatımlı Blitz videolar için buraya https://www.youtube....8TtR_eO-MCHVFCQ


Riggmaster #49 Posted 05 October 2015 - 07:01 PM

    First Sergeant

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  • 14113 battles
  • 1,661
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  • Member since:
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View Post__Nikolaus__, on 05 October 2015 - 07:59 PM, said:

İ have a 3.2 k avg damage 2.01 avg spot with my obj 140. And my wn8 is 2200.  u gotta be kidding me ?  i will keep looking wotbstars. 

 

Does that mean the API isn't working well? Or is it outdated... As in late info for the player

__Nikolaus__ #50 Posted 05 October 2015 - 07:16 PM

    Sergeant

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View PostRigenkr, on 05 October 2015 - 07:01 PM, said:

 

Does that mean the API isn't working well? Or is it outdated... As in late info for the player

 

Not just this tank.  All tanks wn8 ratings are nonsense. 

 

İ mean what should i do to make 2900 wn8 ? 4000 avg damae 3.0 k avg spot ?

 

Wotbstars seems very balanced. 


Türkçe anlatımlı Blitz videolar için buraya https://www.youtube....8TtR_eO-MCHVFCQ


hson_hson #51 Posted 05 October 2015 - 07:32 PM

    First Sergeant

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This is because WN8 is based on comparing a players stats against the average player.

And since wotbstars have more players in the database and blitzstars probably has a higher percentage of good players WN8 will be different.



Mockney_piers #52 Posted 05 October 2015 - 09:07 PM

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exactly.

SockRobber has already told us that average WR is 54% so figures are totally skewed.

But it's in beta, he's trying to get it functionally right, and doing a great job.

THe better data will come in time,especially once we've collectively put 27000 players in or he's undergone a clan scraping exercise as described above.

Patience, and your WN8s will perk up.

Personally I think it's a very good work in progress, thanks for your efforts sockrobber!!!!



llo1 #53 Posted 05 October 2015 - 09:26 PM

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View PostRigenkr, on 05 October 2015 - 06:57 PM, said:

 

True, acing an overpowered tank gets boring after a while

*cough says the guy with 10/37 ace tankers cough*

 

I can honestly say that the tanks I have multiple Ace' s are not OP, but neither are they easy .

SockRobber #54 Posted 05 October 2015 - 09:26 PM

    Senior Sergeant

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    12-05-2014

Thanks guys - yes, work in progress. As we've been discussing in this thread (and some people obviously missed ;) ), the statistical sample is flawed. And WN8 uses those for calculations. And the percentiles are used in the tank comparisons.

 

I have today begun work on getting better averages.

 

Here is my current thinking:

 

Fundamentally, a stats site using it's own 'user' database to determine averages is flawed. As I've mentioned in previous posts, people going to a stats site are going to be overwhelmingly in the 'better than average' category. This means, to get more accurate averages, a site would have to compensate by adding worse players in to the database. But as soon as you start artificially injecting players in the the mix, the legitimacy of the stats and averages goes out the window. Basically two main things will happen:

  1. A lot of 'below' average players are added to 'balance' out the bias of the type of people who visit the site (I particularly dislike this as I am a big fan of percentiles)
  2. A mix of players are added, helping to balance the averages, but still leaving a 'top heavy' bias.

Whatever happens, the results are less than optimal. They might be 'okay' if you have a very high total number of players recorded versus users, and if you are only interested in 'mean' averages. But neither of those things applies to BlitzStars and neither appeal to me.

 

So - thanks to some of the positive contributions in this thread - I have decided to test/implement entirely separate stats to use for the averages. And, again thanks to chatter in this thread, I have devised a method to get those stats.

 

The current selection process is this:

5-10k randomly selected accounts from the 4 regions, so 20-40k total accounts (aka players).

Each selected account must:

  1. Have a minimum of 1,500 battles played on the account
  2. Have had at least one battle in the last 30 days

For the individual tanks there is just one consideration:

  1. A minimum of 100 battles

 

I hope that these numbers will be sufficient to provide a true and accurate reflection of the playerbase.

 

I have run an initial test and getting this number of players per region looks like it will be no problem - which is fantastic.

 

So now what remains is to decide if the above qualifications (battles played, minimum battles in tank, etc) are good to run with. 

If you guys have any thoughts, please share.

 

 


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Kriljoy #55 Posted 05 October 2015 - 10:25 PM

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View PostSockRobber, on 05 October 2015 - 09:26 PM, said:

I hope that these numbers will be sufficient to provide a true and accurate reflection of the playerbase.

 

I have run an initial test and getting this number of players per region looks like it will be no problem - which is fantastic.

 

So now what remains is to decide if the above qualifications (battles played, minimum battles in tank, etc) are good to run with. 

If you guys have any thoughts, please share.

 

+1 for your great work!

 

Well I figure it's up to you to decide what you want the averages to reflect? If you want the ratings in Blitzstars to be a reflection of ones performance visavi others that are equally active in the game (sort of Blitzstar players vs. matched controls), then perhaps the criterions are a bit too inclusive. Maybe you would rather use say the 25th percentile of Blitzstar players number of battles total/per month as criterion to sample controls from the data. If you on the other hand want the ratings to reflect ones performance visavi all players (Blitzstar players vs. population), then your suggested criterions for sampling sounds reasonable.


 

 


Saukula #56 Posted 05 October 2015 - 11:47 PM

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I played with some tanks only 100 battles but i didnt see in top of my best stats.

hson_hson #57 Posted 06 October 2015 - 05:09 AM

    First Sergeant

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    08-19-2014

View PostSockRobber, on 05 October 2015 - 10:26 PM, said:

The current selection process is this:

5-10k randomly selected accounts from the 4 regions, so 20-40k total accounts (aka players).

Each selected account must:

  1. Have a minimum of 1,500 battles played on the account
  2. Have had at least one battle in the last 30 days

For the individual tanks there is just one consideration:

  1. A minimum of 100 battles

 

I hope that these numbers will be sufficient to provide a true and accurate reflection of the playerbase.

 

 

I did some quick checks using the API and if I increment account id with 10k starting from my own account id (created 2014-08-19), there was 2500 accounts which had played blitz.

Two months later it was 3.5k/10k and recently(2015-09-16) its 4.8k/10k.

This means that in ~13 months there have been 9.2M WG accounts created and of those a rough estimate of about 2.8M have played Blitz.

Now, many of those accounts have probably just played a few battles...



pasys #58 Posted 06 October 2015 - 08:50 AM

    Junior Sergeant

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  • Member since:
    04-05-2013

I read the full Blitz Accounts:

 

Users: 2903365 

 

Player matches distribution
Zero Matches Under 1000 Matches 1000 to 10000 Matches over 10000 Matches
308575 2484353 140927 3412

 

Winrate Ranking whit more then 500 Matches
< 30% >= 30% and < 40% >= 40% and < 50% >= 50% and < 60% >= 60% and < 70% >= 70%
7 5320 169895 72339 2844 112

My Ranking and Stat Site http://wot.maxra.de

hson_hson #59 Posted 06 October 2015 - 11:15 AM

    First Sergeant

  • Player
  • 30342 battles
  • 3,656
  • [_VLNT]
  • Member since:
    08-19-2014

Interesting, this means that average WR for people with more than 500 battles probably is something like 45%.

 

How old is that data btw? I just noticed that its just 7 below 30% and I think can name about that amount. Seems unlikely I would have met all of them...


Edited by hson_hson, 06 October 2015 - 11:16 AM.


pasys #60 Posted 06 October 2015 - 12:48 PM

    Junior Sergeant

  • Player
  • 6484 battles
  • 202
  • Member since:
    04-05-2013

View Posthson_hson, on 06 October 2015 - 12:15 PM, said:

Interesting, this means that average WR for people with more than 500 battles probably is something like 45%.

 

How old is that data btw? I just noticed that its just 7 below 30% and I think can name about that amount. Seems unlikely I would have met all of them...

 

that information is about a week old. It has take me 3 Month to get all this Account Informations, its hard to get all User. My Brutforce Scripts going once a Month to collect new Users and from all existing users there will be an update every week
My Ranking and Stat Site http://wot.maxra.de





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