- The simple model can explain 79.2% (tier_10.wglm2.R) of the variance which is decent result. The rest is "randomness" and "unknown factors".
- Intercept "variable" i.e. the constant is 21.2%: Therefore, the model estimates a full-time-AFK player would get 21.2% WR at tier X. I did the same analysis for tier VI and there a full-time-AFK would get 33.4% WR.
- Average Damage (avg.dmg_dealt.diff): Increase of 1000hp will increase your WR by 8.5%
- Kill sper Battle (avg.frags.diff): One kill/battle will increase your WR by 6.2%
- Spot rate (spot_rate.diff): One spot per battle will increase your WR by 3.6%
- Hit Rate (hit_rate.diff): 10% (nominal) increase of will increase your WR by 0.4%
- Average Damage Received (avg.dmg_received.diff): is not statistically valid (p-value 0.06)
Average damage vs WR
There is a strong linear correlation between Average Damage and WR. Please note that this graph bundles all tank types together. Still, doing damage alone is not enough. For example with 2000 average damage, one can have a WR between 40-60% depending other output factors like average kills, spot rate, other factors not captured by WG data (e.g. Assisted Damage, Blocked Damage, tactical mastery resulting wins, but not measurable with data) and pure luck (aka "the teams" ) . As said, the element of luck decreases as the number of battles increases. R-value is 0.71 indicating clear correlation.
Kills per battle vs WR
There is also clear linear correlation between average kills per battle and WR. Again, just kills won't win a battle, but having 1 kill per battle on average at tier X can result WR between 40% and 70%. Some of the most extreme data points might be errors in the WG data (yes, there are several people having simply incorrect data like average damage higher than the total HP pool of the reds...). The R-value is 0.68 indicating clear correlation.
WR vs Average Damage + Kills per Battle
Here is a plot of WR against average values of Average Damage and Kills.
WR vs Average Damage + Kills per Battle [Heavy Tanks]
Spot rate vs. WR
This is where it gets interesting. R-value is only 0.09 meaning that that there is only a weak correlation between WR and Spot Rate. You can spot by YOLOing hard and by doing it right.
WR vs Survival Rate and Spot Rate
The art of spotting is to spot without dying. Color in the graphs shows the player's WR. Couple of interesting findings can be made:
- The very best do NOT spot the most, but they spot "reasonable amount" ~1.5-2.0 spots per battle.
- Camping does not win games: High Survival Rate combined with low spot rate is a recipe for failure.
- In general, better players spot more, but this plateaus ~60% WR. Players better than this actually post less and are likely more cautious in their game play.
However, the graph above bundles all tank types together. Let's see how does the data look per different tanks class.
WR vs Average Cap Points vs. Survival Rate and Spot Rate PER TANK TYPE
Heavy Tanks
From the data it is clear that:
- Players who spot more in a heavy tank (i.e. play it more aggressively) tend to win more.
- Max spot rate in heavy increases up to 60%, but then starts to decline.
- The very best spot ~1.2-1.7 tanks per battle
- Camping in a heavy tank does not work - what a surprise ...
Medium tanks
- First of all, even the very best Tier X drivers do not reach such a WRs in medium tanks as they do in heavy tanks. Let's remember that the time period is Feb-August 2017 and the Prammo Nerf was introduced in 3.9 (June 2017)
- The best Medium tanks drivers spot 2 tanks per game on average.
- What comes to "potatoes", camping is better than YOLOing... (up to 45%...)
Tank Destroyers
- Players reach higher WRs in TDs than in Medium tanks
- Very few players are doing super-bad (sub 35%) in Tier X TDs. If one gets only one shot per battle having a big gun helps
- Spotting in TD is not the way to go. The very best spot ~0.8 tanks per battle.
Capping points show no correlation with WR. The R-value is only 0.01 meaning Average Capping Points do not explain someone's WR pretty much at all.
Average Cap Defense Points vs WR
There is very weak correlation between Average Cap Defense Points and WR (R-value is 0.11). However, the data says it is more important to defend the cap than to actually cap (R-value 0.11 vs 0.01).
Edited by jylpah, 07 December 2017 - 08:15 AM.