So for the T-22 event, there are three sales options.

1+1 free crates for £9.99, single crates for £9.99 and 5+1 crates for £48.99. I'll stick with British pounds, I may try and evolve this later for euros etc.

For the sake of this article, I will also assume that everyone buys bulk and not single crates

I've created a statistical model that starts with a pool of 10,000 people all willing to keep buying until they get the tank. Assuming they buy the 1+1 crates (both of them) and then continue with the 5+1 then the chances of you getting one and the costs. This doesn't count players that might get 2 tanks in their sets, there are impacts here I will explain later.

Now into my model I've also built in a droppoff rate, 5% if you don't get the tank from the cheaper crates, and 40% if you don't get them from the larger ones....it's a work in progress but this is where I am so far.

Players Gambling |
Crates Bought |
Players Winning Tank |
Players giving up |
Cumulative Cost for winners |
%age of gamblers winning tank (total) |
WG money made |

10,000 |
1+1 (2) |
1000 |
450 |
£9.99 |
10% |
£99,900 |

8,550 |
1+1 (4) |
855 |
3078 |
£19.98 |
18.55% |
£185,314 |

4,617 |
5+1 (10) |
1385 |
1292 |
£68.97 |
32.4% |
£411,501 |

1940 |
5+1 (16) |
582 |
543 |
£117.96 |
38.22% |
£506,541 |

815 |
5+1 (22) |
244 |
228 |
£166.95 |
40.66% |
£546.468 |

343 |
5+1 (28) |
102 |
96 |
£215.94 |
41.68% |
£563.272 |

145 |
5+1 (34) |
43 |
40 |
£264.93 |
42.11% |
£570.375 |

62 |
5+1 (40) |
18 |
17 |
£313.92 |
42.29% |
£573.413 |

So you should get the idea. The percentages are of the original 10K customer that have got the tank for that amount of money shown or less.

So there is a 18.55% chance it would cost you £19.98 or less to get the tank, going up to a 40.66% chance it will cost you under £167. But that still means there is a 60% chance you haven't won the tank after spending £167.

Also, a significant note here, is the smaller the pool of players there are opening tanks, the higher the probability that one player gets more than one tank in his batch of crates, worsening the odds for the other players trying to get it.

So take a look at the table above, determine what you might be willing to spend and look at the chance that you might get that tank for that money....that's the real stake here...ignore the 5% as it means nothing on an individual basis.

The above also explains why you hear about a lot of players opening only a crate or two and getting the tank, as initially with the pool of purchasers high, the chances are almost 20% of getting the tank for under £20.

I will add further to this in time but thought it was about time to provide a lot more detail than the 5% chance and notional average costs that we all have worked to until now.

The drop off curve based on amount spent needs refining above, but it's good enough for an indicative model right now.

**Edited by stubbo66, 19 August 2019 - 05:07 PM.**