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Smasher crates, yay! or no..


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Replicant_2 #1 Posted 14 January 2020 - 09:29 AM

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That's going to be popular, 

because what this game needs after thousands of Dracs and Hellsings have joined the game over the past 2 months is ... MORE SMASHERS!!!

 


All those moments will be lost in time, like tears in rain.

Time to die.


Buckleyteer2 #2 Posted 14 January 2020 - 09:57 AM

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I would have thought it would have been cash considering the last time it was released for sale but I guess WG can earn more money.. Get people to by 10K gold and 30 days premium just to spend it on crates a day later 

ggarfer #3 Posted 14 January 2020 - 10:18 AM

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Base chance analysis and costs with individual crates and with bundles. 

 

Post image



Widd1 #4 Posted 14 January 2020 - 11:01 AM

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View Postggarfer, on 14 January 2020 - 10:18 AM, said:

Base chance analysis and costs with individual crates and with bundles. 

 

Post image


As the chance is only 5% for each crate, your chance of getting Smasher is 5%, Your chances don’t go up for each crate you open! 
simple open crate 5% chance, next crate 5% chance.
 



Replicant_2 #5 Posted 14 January 2020 - 11:19 AM

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View PostWidd1, on 14 January 2020 - 11:01 AM, said:


As the chance is only 5% for each crate, your chance of getting Smasher is 5%, Your chances don’t go up for each crate you open! 
simple open crate 5% chance, next crate 5% chance.
 

 

Probability calculus is a b*** isn't it :)

 

You're not wrong, probability of each event remains constant, however we're talking about probability of an outcome of a series of events, specifically what's the probability that ALL the crates you open will be empty (it's easier to calculate than looking at chances that at least one crate will contain a tank). 

Think tossing a coin, all you need is to get heads once to win. Each toss has 50/50 chance heads/tails but the question is, if you repeat the throw 20 times, what is the chance that you'll get heads at least once. The easiest way to answer this is to say: what is the chance that I will get tails 20 times in a row and then subtract the result from 1.

For a coin, probability of getting heads at least once in a series of 20 tosses is 99.9% even though each independent toss has the same 50% chance.

And this is what the graph shows, only for the crates the ratio is 5/95 instead of 50/50. 

BUT, this is just a probability, you may well open 100 crates and not get the tank, you get the feel of it?


Edited by Replicant_2, 14 January 2020 - 11:29 AM.

All those moments will be lost in time, like tears in rain.

Time to die.


Debbie_Does_Dallas #6 Posted 14 January 2020 - 11:26 AM

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It's still 5% per crate...unless people are of the opinion that wg will go easy on them and broaden those odds if they buy enough of them.


And when I reach the gates of heaven, Saint Peter I will tell..."one more soldier reporting sir, I've served my time in hell".

verse found among possessions of dead american GI on omaha beach. Normandy 1944.


gulfuroth #7 Posted 14 January 2020 - 11:31 AM

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View PostReplicant_2, on 14 January 2020 - 11:19 AM, said:

 

Probability calculus is a b*** isn't it :)

 

You're not wrong, probability of each event remains constant, however we're talking about probability of an outcome of a series of events, specifically what's the probability that ALL the crates you open will be empty (it's easier to calculate than looking at chances that at least one crate will contain a tank). 

Think tossing a coin, all you need is to get heads once to win. Each toss has 50/50 chance heads/tails but the question is, if you repeat the throw 20 times, what is the chance that you'll get heads at least once. The easiest way to answer this is to say: what is the chance that I will get tails 20 times in a row and then subtract the result from 1.

And this is what the graph shows, only for the crates the ratio is 5/95 instead of 50/50. 

BUT, this is just a probability, you may well open 100 crates and not get the tank, you get the feel of it?

 

Well explained. As you say those are just probabilities. And they "reset" everytime you open a box as they are independent events.  These numbers are here for anyone willing to invest on the tank to give them an idea of how much they need to invest to get a good chance of getting the tank (but chance is not security!)

If I didn't have it I'd probably be gambling. That's what WG is counting on. 



Replicant_2 #8 Posted 14 January 2020 - 11:37 AM

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ok, I'm not going to take the entire clan on, you're right guys :) each crate has exactly the same 5% chance

 

BUT the overall probability of you getting a tank does go up with every crate you open.

only, probability doesn't mean much, my account appears to be on a black list and I could open 1000 creates and only get free xp.

Maybe Stubbo will also chip in :)

 

 


All those moments will be lost in time, like tears in rain.

Time to die.


Corpsetaker #9 Posted 14 January 2020 - 11:40 AM

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I get what you're saying. After 9 crates I got zip.

Mjr_Eazy #10 Posted 14 January 2020 - 12:28 PM

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Smash!  Re-roll, 8 crates bundle, posters & certificates :(

and Grab! WTH, buy 1 more, Smasher!

 

This account, 8 crate bundle, 6th crate, Smasher!

 

Smashing, I love probabilities and gambling :)

 

The gold was £0 on both accounts thanks to MS Bing Rewards gift cards :)

So thank you Microsoft and WG!

 

YMMV!!!


547146227.png

 


llo1 #11 Posted 14 January 2020 - 12:38 PM

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Saw the advert for a Smasher for 3000 gold.....yeh.......opened it up ....crates......nay!

 



Buckleyteer2 #12 Posted 14 January 2020 - 12:44 PM

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I have cash waiting if anyone has a spare one for sale lol

Corpsetaker #13 Posted 14 January 2020 - 01:10 PM

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View PostMjr_Eazy, on 14 January 2020 - 12:28 PM, said:

Smash!  Re-roll, 8 crates bundle, posters & certificates :(

and Grab! WTH, buy 1 more, Smasher!

 

This account, 8 crate bundle, 6th crate, Smasher!

 

Smashing, I love probabilities and gambling :)

 

The gold was £0 on both accounts thanks to MS Bing Rewards gift cards :)

So thank you Microsoft and WG!

 

YMMV!!!

You Son of a Congratz!



BaronVeyer #14 Posted 14 January 2020 - 02:19 PM

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Ugh...

StijnIn #15 Posted 14 January 2020 - 02:21 PM

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Totally against gambling but what the hey I'm not perfect... got lucky on crate nr 5!! :bajan:

And a crapload of free XP, boosters...  so not bad after all.

 

Like explained, to calculate the drop chance, you should calculate the chance it doesn't drop and decuct that from 1.

 

So...

Drop chance 

1 crate = 1 - 0.95 = 0.05 = 5pct

2 crates = 1 - (0.95 x 0.95) = 0.098 = 9.8 pct

3 crates = 1 - (0.95 x 0.95 x 0.95) = 0.0143 = 14.3 pct

4 crates = 1 - (0.95 x 0.95 x 0.95 x 0.95) =  0,0185 = 18,5 pct

...

9 crates = 1 - (0.95 x 0.95 x 0.95 x 0.95 x 0.95 x 0.95 x 0.95 x 0.95 x 0.95) = 0.340 = 34 %

 

and so on...

 

Anyway, good luck! :)

 

 

 

 


In bello parvis momentis magni casus intercedunt

Buckleyteer2 #16 Posted 14 January 2020 - 02:26 PM

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I still wont be lucky enough to get one always the same. I think WG randomly pick names ( INCLUDING ALL YOUTUBERS) and that's who is getting them...

 



_RagingRabbit_ #17 Posted 14 January 2020 - 03:00 PM

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Fell for it... thanks for the boosters WG

 

:(



Buckleyteer2 #18 Posted 14 January 2020 - 03:02 PM

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I feel your pain...…..

StijnIn #19 Posted 14 January 2020 - 03:03 PM

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Is it still as OP as it used to be?

Anyone got it?


In bello parvis momentis magni casus intercedunt

Buckleyteer2 #20 Posted 14 January 2020 - 03:05 PM

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They are beatable that's all you need to know just look for the sneaky fudgers on the battlefield and as long as you keep tabs on it I wouldn't worry too much




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