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BlitzAnalysiz.com - Blog post about measuring tank (& player) performance

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I_C4NT_W1N_ #41 Posted 09 June 2020 - 02:52 PM

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Wow well don't that's a massive effort ! 

Mjr_Eazy #42 Posted 10 June 2020 - 09:18 AM

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Nice work as ever Jylpah... :medal:

The links were interesting, I know a little about cognitive bias but didn’t there were so many memory biases...

Thank you “stats nerd”, sry but that moniker from Martin D may stick...

Out of curiosity did it generate much traffic for the site featuring in his video?

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=D_ZS4d_QXiE

 


547146227.png

 


KV_007 #43 Posted 10 June 2020 - 10:44 AM

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There's nothing that I really can add to the discussion here atm, but I just felt the need to thank you out out and aloud. It has the potential of convincing even some of the .. :harp: players. (I DM'd littlefinger about blitz tools when he released his MM video..) But just to keep it short, it's thanks to you and those few who give so much to the community that really give 'the meaning of life' to Blitz, and might well be why especially the veteran players find again and again a way to have fun in the game.

Your work (as is those I haven't mentioned, you all know them who have worked thru countless nights for things we all use and love) is dearly appreciated. Cheers,

G



jylpah #44 Posted 10 June 2020 - 12:02 PM

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View PostKV_007, on 10 June 2020 - 12:44 PM, said:

There's nothing that I really can add to the discussion here atm, but I just felt the need to thank you out out and aloud. It has the potential of convincing even some of the .. :harp: players. (I DM'd littlefinger about blitz tools when he released his MM video..) But just to keep it short, it's thanks to you and those few who give so much to the community that really give 'the meaning of life' to Blitz, and might well be why especially the veteran players find again and again a way to have fun in the game.

Your work (as is those I haven't mentioned, you all know them who have worked thru countless nights for things we all use and love) is dearly appreciated. Cheers,

G

 

Thanks, deeply appreciated. Countless of very long nights, indeed :)


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llo1 #45 Posted 10 June 2020 - 12:56 PM

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Jylpah, whilst I like the way you approach the complex WR study, surely wr is NOT necessarily the way to measure an actual individual tank performance.

All this will do is tell you the number of times that the chosen tank is actually within a winning team, not how that tank performs.

If you need to know if a type of tank is op, then you will have to choose something that is specific to that individual tank...so it would have to be something like damage per shot, and more specifically damage caused by a penning shot per battle...

And again for the armour you would have to chose something that was specific to that tank, something like number of shots bounced per battle.
You might get away with averages across the number of games, but again this wouldn’t be totally specific to that tank, at that time in the game.

Sorry for the comments against you great work effort.



jylpah #46 Posted 10 June 2020 - 02:04 PM

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View Postllo1, on 10 June 2020 - 02:56 PM, said:

Jylpah, whilst I like the way you approach the complex WR study, surely wr is NOT necessarily the way to measure an actual individual tank performance.

All this will do is tell you the number of times that the chosen tank is actually within a winning team, not how that tank performs.

If you need to know if a type of tank is op, then you will have to choose something that is specific to that individual tank...so it would have to be something like damage per shot, and more specifically damage caused by a penning shot per battle...

And again for the armour you would have to chose something that was specific to that tank, something like number of shots bounced per battle.
You might get away with averages across the number of games, but again this wouldn’t be totally specific to that tank, at that time in the game.

Sorry for the comments against you great work effort.

 

I have to disagree.

 

Think about how does your logic apply to player WR: Does player WR just tell "how many times the player as been in the winning team" as if the players have been mere passengers in the battles? I don't think that makes much sense since the game is competitive by its nature and the players are being placed randomly into teams. Over large number of battles some players can win constantly win more than others. Are they just "more often in the winning team" as lucky individuals or are they actually playing better than the others? Since the MM randomly places players into teams, the odds for certain tanks just being in the winning teams consistently more often than other tanks (despite equal player skill level), is just unimaginably low (read: "impossible" ) .

 

The Relative WR answers to the question "which tanks are OP?", "how well does tank X perform?".

 

But it does not tell why the tank is performing the way it is.

 

All those individual input stats and features (damage, kills, spotting, camo, alpha damage) are just individual aspects of the game play, but not alone the whole truth.  I will later add general linear regression model analysis to show how individual "input stats" impact on the results on average, but this Variable Importance Plot based on Random Forest analysis gives one an overview how much different "input stats impact" on the WR. I hope you can interpret the variable naming ("old" = cumulative, "diff" is periodic stats) .

 

 

 


Edited by jylpah, 10 June 2020 - 04:13 PM.

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TankyMacTanker #47 Posted 10 June 2020 - 03:01 PM

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Very interesting.  A ton of work.  I had to google what TL;DR meant!  I wonder if the analysis of 6.10 will show any notable differences to 6.9.

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jylpah #48 Posted 17 June 2020 - 10:29 PM

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2020-06-18:

  • Added stats for update 6.10:
  • Fixed a bug in stats filtering code that caused stats being ignored without a reason. It had minor effect on the stats.

 

It seems that on average Sheridan that got nerfed in 7.0 did not perform that well.

 

https://blitzanalysiz.com/update/6.10/tanks/10/#the-best-performing-tanks

 

Best oerforming tier X tanks

 

However, it did perform better for the better players that WG uses for balancing, but it seemed still "perfectly balanced" even for the super unicums. Just comparing it the to M48 Patton here since those are roughly equally performing tanks - on average.

 

I guess the reason for the Sheridan nerf was the big outcry that mixed ATGM hatred (well deserved, IMO) and Sheridan's assumed OPness. Also Sheridan has been a ridiculously popular tanks and WG prefers to maintain diversity among the tanks played. Super-popular tanks like FV183 do get nerfed more than the deserve.


Edited by jylpah, 19 June 2020 - 07:15 AM.

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jylpah #49 Posted 19 June 2020 - 07:16 AM

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Quick Sheridan pre-nerf analysis above :great:

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gallabru #50 Posted 12 July 2020 - 09:15 AM

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[\url]https://youtu.be/KSAhSl9GCC0[\url]

Making use of your site and data

Edited by gallabru, 12 July 2020 - 09:16 AM.

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Knickerson #51 Posted 13 July 2020 - 07:56 AM

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I went to this site on the weekend, just wanted to say what a very, very cool thing to scroll through. I was a little surprised with some of the results, and in denial about others. Thanks for putting it together.
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jylpah #52 Posted 13 July 2020 - 08:16 AM

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View PostKnickerson, on 13 July 2020 - 09:56 AM, said:

I went to this site on the weekend, just wanted to say what a very, very cool thing to scroll through. I was a little surprised with some of the results, and in denial about others. Thanks for putting it together.

 

Thanks! Please share what were the biggest surprises.


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gallabru #53 Posted 13 July 2020 - 08:32 AM

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Personal views :

- Interesting to see that the game is much oriented towards heavies and armour at all tiers concerning the best relative WR. I am saying armour because we find the T28 and E3 in the leaderbords. I am wondering whether this is because you are considering the whole playerbase, and we imagine that armour helps a lot average players, particularly at high tiers ?

- Tier 9 is still the most "balanced" tier with a marginal improvement in WR by playing at this tier.


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jylpah #54 Posted 13 July 2020 - 05:10 PM

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View Postgallabru, on 13 July 2020 - 10:32 AM, said:

Personal views :

- Interesting to see that the game is much oriented towards heavies and armour at all tiers concerning the best relative WR. I am saying armour because we find the T28 and E3 in the leaderbords. I am wondering whether this is because you are considering the whole playerbase, and we imagine that armour helps a lot average players, particularly at high tiers ?

- Tier 9 is still the most "balanced" tier with a marginal improvement in WR by playing at this tier.

 

I think the main reason for this is that tanks with armor are forgiving for less skilled players where as LTs and meds require skill to become effective. That averages towards heavies benefit.

 

I am planning to add there stats per player skill category: WR Tier <45%, 45-55%, 55-65%, 65%< once I have time to work on the site.


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Mjr_Eazy #55 Posted 14 July 2020 - 08:05 AM

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View Postjylpah, on 13 July 2020 - 05:10 PM, said:

I am planning to add there stats per player skill category: WR Tier <45%, 45-55%, 55-65%, 65%< once I have time to work on the site.

Will you be able to break that down by tank?  I’m curious what drags the lekpz into bottom 20 as I am not very good but find it a very effective light tank...

I would have thought it would be more experienced/better players that have it...


Edited by Mjr_Eazy, 14 July 2020 - 08:06 AM.

547146227.png

 


jylpah #56 Posted 14 July 2020 - 10:12 AM

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View PostMjr_Eazy, on 14 July 2020 - 10:05 AM, said:

Will you be able to break that down by tank?  I’m curious what drags the lekpz into bottom 20 as I am not very good but find it a very effective light tank...

I would have thought it would be more experienced/better players that have it...

 

I am planning to do the following:

 

1) Tier / Tank type pages that have the charts for all the tanks of the type on the tier

2) The same page for player segments by WR at the tier

3) Tank specific pages that have also graphs showing WR/avg damage/kills/spots per WR. New type of fancy charts that will awe all of you LOL

 


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Mjr_Eazy #57 Posted 15 July 2020 - 12:27 AM

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M8 we are already awed!

547146227.png

 


jylpah #58 Posted 16 July 2020 - 02:12 PM

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Hello,

 

Stats for update 7.0 has been added to the site. Interestingly, the tracked player base played random battles significantly less than during 6.10 despite the update period being longer than usual.

 

 

 

 

In addition, there are now pages for each tank type per tier. Now all the tanks' data is now viewable on the site.

 

 


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llo1 #59 Posted 16 July 2020 - 02:24 PM

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Jylpah...tracked data base lower random battles?

Could this be simply that WG have had oodles of different competition types for significant periods since the last update?....

....or is it more sinister.....more tracked players are Simply not playing As much?



llo1 #60 Posted 16 July 2020 - 02:27 PM

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Nice work as usual jylpah....one thing I now notice is that the latest top 20 tanks by Wr....I now only have 2 of these, and these are not my most played tanks....probably the reason my wr is struggling as I am trying to denoob tanks in my garage that I have historically struggled with....




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