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Mjr_Eazy #21 Posted 18 May 2020 - 11:42 PM

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@Titus, lol, I know it was meant to be a joke :)

547146227.png

 


jylpah #22 Posted 19 May 2020 - 08:03 AM

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Titus, come on. WG has compensated that by leaving the modules out of Dracula.

 

Dracula

 

 

CDC

 

 

Just WOW. Is it 3 years since the release of Dracula?

 

#giveDraculaAmmoRack

 


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Titus_Scato #23 Posted 19 May 2020 - 03:23 PM

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View PostMjr_Eazy, on 18 May 2020 - 11:42 PM, said:

@Titus, lol, I know it was meant to be a joke :)

 

Sorry, I still don't speak Joke very well.  :mellow:

 

I was raised by a German woman with no sense of humour whatsoever.  (She was born in 1925, that explains why.)


Edited by Titus_Scato, 19 May 2020 - 03:29 PM.


Selthae #24 Posted 24 May 2020 - 02:23 AM

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In another thread on the forum, you mentioned that the player-churn in blitz is really high.

 

Have you ever run (or are you maybe planning to run) a churn-winrate graph?

I would be interested :)

 



jylpah #25 Posted 24 May 2020 - 11:57 AM

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View PostSelthae, on 24 May 2020 - 04:23 AM, said:

In another thread on the forum, you mentioned that the player-churn in blitz is really high.

 

Have you ever run (or are you maybe planning to run) a churn-winrate graph?

I would be interested :)

 


I am writing a post about WR and measuring tank performance at the momnt. Making a post about player churn another one on the list, but there are few other things I want to do before it (tank type & tank pages). 
 


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llo1 #26 Posted 02 June 2020 - 11:22 AM

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Jylpah, a couple of questions, probably asked and answered elsewhere, and if so please forgive me.

 

1) Is it possible to enable a comparison of not just “top” or “bottom” tanks in tier, but to say have a filter for the “whole” tier data to show how the different types of tanks compare/rank within that tier eg lights/Meds/heavies/TD’s

 

2) Again this maybe a stupid idea, but from Items & comments in other posts, I was wondering if there was any way to relate your data against the “published” WG data for the individual tanks...in other words so that people can see how the tank they are interested in actually compares when played to what WG are saying about the same tank?



jylpah #27 Posted 02 June 2020 - 12:01 PM

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View Postllo1, on 02 June 2020 - 01:22 PM, said:

Jylpah, a couple of questions, probably asked and answered elsewhere, and if so please forgive me.

 

1) Is it possible to enable a comparison of not just “top” or “bottom” tanks in tier, but to say have a filter for the “whole” tier data to show how the different types of tanks compare/rank within that tier eg lights/Meds/heavies/TD’s

 

2) Again this maybe a stupid idea, but from Items & comments in other posts, I was wondering if there was any way to relate your data against the “published” WG data for the individual tanks...in other words so that people can see how the tank they are interested in actually compares when played to what WG are saying about the same tank?

 

 

Hello llo1!

 

Good questions.

 

1) Each tier can have ~25 tank per type, and around 80 total. I think the graph is bit too wide to be displayed on the screen especially since all the content on the site is static. There are few things I am planning to do that hopefully address your questions:

a) Create tier/vehicle class pages that show data for all the same type tanks per tier.

b) make average stats by tank type graphs to the tank/tier pages

c) figure out a way to display the graphs with an interactive HTMLwidget that would enable user to filter the graphs as they wish. This is a longer term thing since I am not a pro web dev, but just learning by doing.

 

2) I am planning to make a blog post about this. The thing is that I have no idea how the average damage can be so high as WG is showing in their graphs. I have run comparisons based on my data and the average damages are consistently 10-20% lower. The order of tanks is about the same, but this is definitely a topic deserving closer analysis.

 

I have started to write a blog post about measuring tank performance and a simple post is turning into a series of lengthy analyses. Sorry.


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gallabru #28 Posted 02 June 2020 - 12:53 PM

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View Postjylpah, on 19 May 2020 - 08:03 AM, said:

Titus, come on. WG has compensated that by leaving the modules out of Dracula.

 

Dracula ...

 

CDC...

 

#giveDraculaAmmoRack

 

I have ammoracked a Drac a few days ago (for 48 hp...). Back left of turret.

It would look like the modules of the Dracula are not displayed in armour insepctor (we all know that we can set it on fire).


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gallabru #29 Posted 02 June 2020 - 12:55 PM

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Don't the data published by WG consider only the 55%-65% WR playerbase ?

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llo1 #30 Posted 02 June 2020 - 01:24 PM

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View Postgallabru, on 02 June 2020 - 12:55 PM, said:

Don't the data published by WG consider only the 55%-65% WR playerbase ?


That’s what I seem to remember is either quoted by them, or by people “quoting” WG.

But, assuming that is actually correct, then doesn’t add to the case AGAINST WG allowing players to progress to fast into tiers where they simply don’t have the experience to handle the tanks?

Again, as the “average” wr of the “average” player seems to be variously quoted by the various sources recently to be 48%....doesn’t that suggest that the whole basis of WG adjustments is not actually based within reality?

Too many averages and actuality in that last assumption! Sorry!

It is making my brain hurt! 



Mjr_Eazy #31 Posted 02 June 2020 - 04:25 PM

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View Postgallabru, on 02 June 2020 - 12:55 PM, said:

Don't the data published by WG consider only the 55%-65% WR playerbase ?

 

View Postllo1, on 02 June 2020 - 01:24 PM, said:


That’s what I seem to remember is either quoted by them, or by people “quoting” WG.

 

547146227.png

 


jylpah #32 Posted 03 June 2020 - 09:43 AM

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View Postgallabru, on 02 June 2020 - 02:55 PM, said:

Don't the data published by WG consider only the 55%-65% WR playerbase ?

 

Yes, but it still does not match the stats.

 

Here is the WoT Blitz damage / WR graph for 6.9

 

 

Here is what I get:

 

Based on WR during the update 6.9

 

                       Tank Average Dmg Average WR Players Battles
> stats.update.tier[(WR.global >= .55) & (WR.global <= .65) & DT_filter_battles_tank(all.battles, all.battles.new, tier, is_premium), .('Average Dmg' = sum(all.damage_dealt)/sum(all.battles), 'Average WR' = 100*sum(all.wins)/sum(all.battles), Players = uniqueN(account_id), Battles = sum(all.battles)), by=.(Tank = name)][order(Tank)]
                       Tank Average Dmg Average WR Players Battles
 1:    AMX 30 1er prototype    1928.167   61.32998     679   83460
 2:              AMX 50 120    1920.863   56.89317     241   31640
 3:             AMX 50 Foch    1931.186   59.43121     257   37694
 4:  Bat.-Châtillon 25 t AP    1794.568   57.00132     224   27352
 5:       Centurion Mk. 7/1    1786.190   57.63661     212   27139
 6:               Conqueror    1872.921   57.41738     273   40850
 7:                    E 50    1769.902   58.45150     401   54091
 8:                    E 75    1796.825   57.75130     666   93752
 9:           FV4004 Conway    2069.494   58.86332     472   69043
10:           Ho-Ri Type II    2006.936   59.08620     720  142876
11:                    IS-8    1774.139   56.77619     378   46169
12:               Jagdtiger    2012.270   58.07269     287   37472
13:                    K-91    2018.393   60.74313     515   55091
14:                KpfPz 70    1902.407   58.66794     497   52400
15:      Leopard Prototyp A    1759.323   57.61915     356   45530
16:                    M103    1836.932   57.63188     274   35961
17:              M46 Patton    1845.619   58.49862     124   17797
18:                Mäuschen    1708.841   56.50867     215   26941
19:              Object 704    2033.308   57.94035     511   73624
20:    Prototipo Standard B    2010.373   59.69841    1103  176199
21:                    ST-I    1805.487   57.69549     279   37431
22:               SU-122-54    1963.614   58.24433     236   30803
23:                    T-54    1761.268   59.36107    1111  139952
24:                   T 55A    1848.442   60.98269      89    8955
25:                     T30    2038.627   58.40340     516   69222
26:                   T54E1    1856.655   56.86671     349   44541
27:                   T92E1    1987.847   60.64864    3590  692675
28:                     T95    1900.127   59.12325     116   18409
29:                Tortoise    1839.498   56.62851     137   22803
30:                 Type 61    1868.305   57.65515     275   41299
31:    VK 45.02 (P) Ausf. B    1737.124   56.61152     132   15110
32: Waffenträger auf Pz. IV    2137.693   59.18834    2629  482889
33:        WZ-111 model 1-4    1815.965   56.85971     114   16145
34:              WZ-111G FT    2003.692   57.77317     205   27968
35:                  WZ-120    1733.869   57.80335     281   40489
                       Tank Average Dmg Average WR Players Battles

 

 

Ru server (under represented in the database and is the biggest Blitz server)

 

 

> stats.update.tier[(WR.global >= .55) & (WR.global <= .65) & (region == 'ru' ) & DT_filter_battles_tank(all.battles, all.battles.new, tier, is_premium), .('Average Dmg' = sum(all.damage_dealt)/sum(all.battles), 'Average WR' = 100*sum(all.wins)/sum(all.battles), Players = uniqueN(account_id), Battles = sum(all.battles)), by=.(Tank = name)][order(Tank)]
                       Tank Average Dmg Average WR Players Battles
 1:    AMX 30 1er prototype    1977.976   61.89625     191   24058
 2:              AMX 50 120    1932.721   57.32915      63    7975
 3:             AMX 50 Foch    1968.397   61.10436      77   11518
 4:  Bat.-Châtillon 25 t AP    1837.105   57.58263      54    6172
 5:       Centurion Mk. 7/1    1877.748   58.64894      38    5492
 6:               Conqueror    1909.558   58.23602      88   13016
 7:                    E 50    1803.397   58.61863     124   16737
 8:                    E 75    1852.177   57.80359     135   18767
 9:           FV4004 Conway    2084.171   59.68379     138   24794
10:           Ho-Ri Type II    2004.274   59.56516     245   49351
11:                    IS-8    1783.481   56.71131      94   10229
12:               Jagdtiger    2043.969   58.38103      63    8561
13:                    K-91    2035.661   60.80508     112   13688
14:                KpfPz 70    1916.584   59.12496     108   11748
15:      Leopard Prototyp A    1780.641   58.23916      72    9291
16:                    M103    1905.502   58.43107      65    9038
17:              M46 Patton    1930.468   58.91947      35    4905
18:                Mäuschen    1731.260   56.45686      55    6768
19:              Object 704    2001.055   57.65629     145   22426
20:    Prototipo Standard B    2049.951   60.44739     339   54583
21:                    ST-I    1834.760   56.86179      75   10216
22:               SU-122-54    2005.599   58.88581      77   10106
23:                    T-54    1811.191   59.80555     312   37234
24:                   T 55A    1952.798   63.36088      19    1815
25:                     T30    2059.750   59.30439     118   18056
26:                   T54E1    1892.711   57.49791      96   11950
27:                   T92E1    2018.930   61.36150     969  188527
28:                     T95    1856.784   59.48667      27    5065
29:                Tortoise    1789.862   56.87005      38    6441
30:                 Type 61    1893.577   57.88299      83   12102
31:    VK 45.02 (P) Ausf. B    1765.267   56.51011      28    3364
32: Waffenträger auf Pz. IV    2145.031   59.99518     784  153634
33:        WZ-111 model 1-4    1825.078   55.46358      22    3020
34:              WZ-111G FT    2015.772   58.56905      53    7813
35:                  WZ-120    1758.813   57.89757      76   11149
                       Tank Average Dmg Average WR Players Battles

 

Based on Career WR in the end of update 6.9

 

> stats.update.tier[(WR.global.new >= .55) & (WR.global.new <= .65) & DT_filter_battles_tank(all.battles, all.battles.new, tier, is_premium), .('Average Dmg' = sum(all.damage_dealt)/sum(all.battles), 'Average WR' = 100*sum(all.wins)/sum(all.battles), Players = uniqueN(account_id), Battles = sum(all.battles)), by=.(Tank = name)][order(Tank)]
                       Tank Average Dmg Average WR Players Battles
 1:    AMX 30 1er prototype    1984.123   62.33408     640   79706
 2:              AMX 50 120    1911.213   56.34737     207   29847
 3:             AMX 50 Foch    1956.350   59.61988     214   32095
 4:  Bat.-Châtillon 25 t AP    1828.410   57.13415     185   22974
 5:       Centurion Mk. 7/1    1872.091   59.26434     170   22592
 6:               Conqueror    1889.818   57.44734     236   36221
 7:                    E 50    1809.785   58.67628     291   38271
 8:                    E 75    1840.665   57.94966     501   71110
 9:           FV4004 Conway    2119.916   59.22820     395   55688
10:           Ho-Ri Type II    2065.313   59.98701     640  126299
11:                    IS-8    1804.264   56.54171     252   32866
12:               Jagdtiger    2060.637   58.49442     220   29384
13:                    K-91    2081.657   61.45503     434   44439
14:                KpfPz 70    1915.696   58.58500     401   42417
15:      Leopard Prototyp A    1789.078   57.59141     283   37167
16:                    M103    1851.419   57.73536     226   31175
17:              M46 Patton    1928.696   59.78852      92   13618
18:                Mäuschen    1764.466   57.06209     149   20164
19:              Object 704    2089.498   58.50414     370   52692
20:    Prototipo Standard B    2057.911   60.21256     854  138124
21:                    ST-I    1880.722   58.63862     220   30381
22:               SU-122-54    1993.473   58.22427     171   22999
23:                    T-54    1812.743   59.83089     814  103246
24:                   T 55A    1930.691   62.20102      85    8069
25:                     T30    2057.611   58.49457     466   60780
26:                   T54E1    1889.260   57.09044     273   35703
27:                   T92E1    2058.349   61.82535    3037  586059
28:                     T95    1943.022   59.12474      95   14510
29:                Tortoise    1860.188   56.78878     120   19245
30:                 Type 61    1929.214   58.29971     244   37182
31:    VK 45.02 (P) Ausf. B    1770.159   56.16504     111   12433
32: Waffenträger auf Pz. IV    2198.797   59.74333    2008  356495
33:        WZ-111 model 1-4    1848.016   57.10428      93   12591
34:              WZ-111G FT    2041.284   58.15623     176   24515
35:                  WZ-120    1808.072   59.39552     234   34410
                       Tank Average Dmg Average WR Players Battles

Edited by jylpah, 03 June 2020 - 10:18 AM.

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llo1 #33 Posted 03 June 2020 - 10:16 AM

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Interesting jylpah!

It isn’t even a consistent variation, which would suggest that you are missing the same something the same way all the time. 
Again it seems that  sometimes the WG Data matches one of yours, but then the calculation produces a variation one way, but the next time the other way!

That would seem to suggest that certain data is being withheld, but NOT the same information for each parameter.

 

Maybe WG are using their famed rnd generator to randomly alter data provided to 3rd parties, simply so they can ensure that there is no one who can produce valid comparison data .....maybe to ensure that the actual programming is not able to be determined through their published (allowed) contacts.


Edited by llo1, 03 June 2020 - 10:19 AM.


jylpah #34 Posted 03 June 2020 - 10:46 AM

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View Postllo1, on 03 June 2020 - 12:16 PM, said:

Interesting jylpah!

It isn’t even a consistent variation, which would suggest that you are missing the same something the same way all the time. 
Again it seems that  sometimes the WG Data matches one of yours, but then the calculation produces a variation one way, but the next time the other way!

That would seem to suggest that certain data is being withheld, but NOT the same information for each parameter.

 

Maybe WG are using their famed rnd generator to randomly alter data provided to 3rd parties, simply so they can ensure that there is no one who can produce valid comparison data .....maybe to ensure that the actual programming is not able to be determined through their published (allowed) contacts.

 

The WR stats are quite close in most of the cases, but the average damage stats are way off for almost all the tanks. E.g. the T92E1 players that have 2300-2400 average damage have 67% WR in it based on my data.

 

stats.update.tier[(name == 'T92E1' ) & (avg_dmg > 2300) & (avg_dmg < 2400)  & 
                   DT_filter_battles_tank(all.battles, all.battles.new, tier, is_premium), 
                   .('Average Dmg' = mean(avg_dmg), 
                       'Average WR' = 100*mean(WR), 
                       Players = uniqueN(account_id), 
                      'Battles/Player' = sum(all.battles)/uniqueN(account_id), 
                      Type=first(type)), 
                   by=.(Tank = name)][order(-Type, -`Average WR`)]
    Tank Average Dmg Average WR Players Battles/Player       Type
1: T92E1    2349.484   66.98324     279        194.595 Light Tank

 

WG could detail a bit how exactly they are calculating their stats.

 

For sure they have more RU players in the data set and my gut-feeling is that skill distribution at RU server is different from EU that is the dominant server on BlitzAnalysiz' stats. It seems more damage is required at RU vs EU to get the same WR.

 

I am already filtering out non-maxed out tanks requiring at least 140 battles in a tier IX to be counted in. I would like to require more cumulative battles, but all the filtering reduces the data set.


Edited by jylpah, 03 June 2020 - 10:48 AM.

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gallabru #35 Posted 03 June 2020 - 11:08 AM

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Like Jylpah I think that the difficulty is to know how WG is filtering their playerbase. Itvis very unlikely that they will tell us, we have to guess.

I would find interesting to see how the total battle of the player base/ number of prem tanks played has evolved with updates. In particular pre and post 5.5.

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jylpah #36 Posted 03 June 2020 - 12:10 PM

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View Postgallabru, on 03 June 2020 - 01:08 PM, said:

I would find interesting to see how the total battle of the player base/ number of prem tanks played has evolved with updates. In particular pre and post 5.5.

 

There are plenty of similar questions related to "how something has evolved over the updates". Before performing such analyses, I need to develop a small toolkit how to compare stats over the tiers and plot graphs. It is on the todo-list, but there are other things ahead of it.


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Replicant_2 #37 Posted 08 June 2020 - 11:44 AM

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well done jylpah, congratulations! 

you're a proper celebrity now that you have a full feature YT episode dedicated to the site.


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jylpah #38 Posted 08 June 2020 - 10:59 PM

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View PostReplicant_2, on 08 June 2020 - 01:44 PM, said:

well done jylpah, congratulations! 

you're a proper celebrity now that you have a full feature YT episode dedicated to the site.

 

Yeah, Martin was so nice to feature my little site on his channel. Big Thanks, Martin! :honoring:

 


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Titus_Scato #39 Posted 08 June 2020 - 11:37 PM

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View Postjylpah, on 08 June 2020 - 10:59 PM, said:

 

Yeah, Martin was so nice to feature my little site on his channel. Big Thanks, Martin! :honoring:

 

 

The little site with the big stats!  :B



jylpah #40 Posted 09 June 2020 - 02:38 PM

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Hello fellow stats-nerds,

 

I went to write a “post” about measuring tank performance and Relative WR.

 

https://blitzanalysiz.com/blog/2020-06-08_measuring_tank_performance/

 

Measuring tank performance

 

Over-Powered (OP) tanks are maybe the 2nd most popular topic on Blitz YouTube videos and online chats - right after “the Matchmaker”. I have long presented that if a tank is “OP”, it has to be visible in statistics. Otherwise there is only qualitative / subjective views left and those come in all sorts.

 

 

People are susceptible to all kinds of biases in their thinking. Getting ammoracked by a Death Star will raise suspicion that Death Star is an OP tank even it is actually the worst tier X tank. Anecdotal experiences distort opinions and no one remembers those countless of battles where a DS was at the bottom on the list. Therefore, tank performance is not a thing that we should vote about, but a thing we can measure with statistics.

 

How to measure performance in the game?

 

Let’s discuss first how to measure performance in the game. I am a proponent of win rate being the best measure for performance (player or tank)– not average damage, not average kills, and not speed, not alpha damage or any other attribute or characteristics. The reason for choosing win rate over other variables is the fact that winning is the objective of the game and all the damage, kills, spotting etc. are just means to win the game. Why to measure the proxy variables when you can measure the final variable itself?

 

There are caveats in using WR as performance measure:

 

  1. It requires lot of battles for WR to settle near one’s performance level due to both MM and RNG: It take 400 battles to reach +/- 5% accuracy, 10000 battles to reach +/- 1% accuracy and 1 million battles! to reach 0.1% accuracy with 95% confidence level. Check this link at PC WoT forums for details.
  2. Platoon rate impacts on WR but cannot be distilled well from the stats since WG does not publish detailed platoon rate per tank played. Platooning with a good player can lift one’s WR 5-15%.
  3. Career WR measures historical average, not one’s present performance level, and reacts slowly once the player has lot (10k+) battles.
  4. WG’s new “newbie MM queue” has distorted the Career stats for rerollers big time. This distorts both tank and player average WR. (Just ignore global & career WR).
  5. Some tanks are more powerful than other. Comparing different players’ WR in different tanks or global WR does not tell much.
  6. Different tiers have different level of difficulty. Global / Average WR is close to useless in measuring player / tank performance.
  7. Stock tanks’ performance is significantly lower compared to maxed-out tanks’ performance.

 

But other performance measures have issues too and can be gamed; Easiest way to increase average damage play more high tiers and more TDs, WN8 can be gamed by playing popular tech three tanks that are difficult for below average players and not too popular among the unicums. Despite all the issues related to WR, I consider it the best performance measure over large number of battles and in case of tanks, over large number of players since it measures directly the objective of the game (=to win battles). It is also more understandable measure vs. somewhat abstract indexes. But I believe performance indicators like WN8 which based on “input stats” (average damage, kills, spots) give more accurate view on players’ short-term performance (< 100 battles). Now going back to the tank performance.

 

So Average WR it is then, right?

 

Not so fast. Average WR of a tank is a good starter, but it itself has its own biases. Let’s have a look on two tier IX mediums: AMX 30 1er prototype and Prototipo Standard B. Everything here is based on 6.9 data.

 

 

Tank Average WR Players
Prototipo Standard B 52.3 7622
AMX 30 1er prototype 56.5 3414

 

Both the tanks have been also played by thousands of players, but the AMX seems to have significantly higher average WR. Many would be tempted to claim the AMX is a better tank than Standard B. But is it?

 

Continue reading at blitzanalysiz.com

 


Edited by jylpah, 09 June 2020 - 07:21 PM.

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